Saturday, January 12, 2013

Basketball Preview: Purdue vs. Penn State - January 13th - 12:00 pm - BTN

After a tough loss to Ohio State, the Boilers look to regain some form against Penn State on Sunday.  The killer first three-game stretch of the season is over, and Purdue was able to get one win in a series that favored three consecutive losses.  That's something, and now the Boilers can build some confidence against some of the lesser teams in the conference.  I just hope those "lesser teams" don't include Purdue moving forward.

The Nittany Lion enjoys pointing and laughing at Penn State players, too

Why Purdue Will Win
The Tim Frazier-less Nittany Lions aren't very good and only averaging 52 points per game in conference play.  That bodes well for a Boilermaker squad that sometimes has trouble scoring.  Just like Purdue, Penn State also shoots poorly and can be a bit turnover prone.  So basically they are Purdue-lite.  Add that to the fact that there's no one on their roster who can handle AJ Hammons, and this shouldn't be a difficult game for Purdue.  There's definitely the opportunity for a big blowout (check out Erik's prediction below) and a ridiculous number of Boiler points in the paint.

Why Penn State Will Win
Playing on the road, I honestly don't give Penn State much of a chance in this came.  And I mean like less than 5%, which is pretty sad since it's not like Purdue is a powerhouse.  The Lions only stand a chance if they can get Hammons in foul trouble, have an uncharacteristically amazing game shooting from the outside, and force Purdue into lots of sloppy turnovers.  They need all three of those things to happen, too, that's how rough this game may be for PSU.  But hey, stranger things have happened.

One thing you absolutely need to know before the game 
Despite the early season turnover problems of a young team, Purdue is now second in the Big Ten in turnover margin, winning the battle +2.67 per game (second to Wisconsin).  And that's all against some of the top teams in the conference. Penn State is worst in the conference at -5.67.  I'm expecting lots of fast break points and streaking layups/dunks for Purdue on Sunday, which is always very fun to watch!

Our Picks - We like to think we're better than Vegas.  So throughout the season, we'll be "betting" a whole dollar amount versus the spread between $1 and $32, but we can't repeat the same value twice. The spread for this game is Purdue by 11.

Erik's Bet: $24
Erik's Pick: Purdue 74 - Penn State 54

Kirk's Bet: $15
Kirk's Pick: Purdue 70 - Penn State 60 (edit: I had to tweak this from 11 to avoid matching the spread)

Erik +195 (13-4 Against The Spread)
Kirk -138 (6-11 Against The Spread)

Values already bet
Erik 3, 6, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 21, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 31, 32
Kirk 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32


1 comment:

  1. Is the Nittany Lion wearing one of Matt Kiefer's scarves?