Basketball Preview: Purdue vs. Bucknell - November 9th - 7:00 pm - BTDN

The NCAA basketball season kicks off on Friday!  I don't know if I've ever been this excited for a Purdue team that's projected to be middle of the pack in the Big Ten (OK, maybe I was five years ago).  This is due both to my love for college basketball and the fact that the football season is a joke.  While looking through the Boiled Sports archives for that link above, I found this post chronicling the apathy we were all feeling back in 2007.  The football team was falling far short of expectations under a checked-out Tiller regime, and the Baby Boilers were giving fans something to be excited for.  It's kind of interesting that five years later we're in a similar boat: exciting new freshmen injected into the basketball program to get our minds of a dreary end to the football season.  'Tis life as a Purdue fan.

Now Bucknell comes to town for our first look at the new version of the Baby Boilers (consider this the last time I call them that).  It will be a serious test right off the bat for Purdue, because the Bison are no cupcake.  Coming off a 25-10 season and a trip to the NIT, Bucknell returns all but one player and starts four seniors.

This will also be the first game of the 2K Sports Classic, however the outcome doesn't impact the future games on the schedule.  Win or lose, Purdue will host Hofstra on November 11 and then head to New York to meet Villanova and either Alabama or Oregon State. I'm excited that I'll be at the Villanova game at Madison Square Garden next week!

Why Purdue Will Win -  If Purdue can shoot even remotely as well as they did against Newberry, this game shouldn't be terribly close.  Purdue should win in the speed and pure talent department on Friday, but they'll need to play strong defense and close out on Bucknell's shooters.  While Bucknell features a really good big man, Mike Muscala at 6'11", he's their only real threat inside so a steady rotation of big Boilers could give him lots of trouble.  Bucknell also doesn't rebound particularly well, so expect Purdue to win that battle if they are going to get the victory.  Terone, little AJ, Ronnie, and Rapheal should have big nights slashing to the basket and making the offense flow, both in halfcourt sets and in transition.

Why Bucknell Will Win -  The Bison feature athletic players with normal size, so this team isn't small at all. Muscala has NBA-potential, so he could have a big night getting Sandi and AJ in foul trouble.  Bucknell also shoots pretty efficiently, and we all saw (or more likely listened to) how the Boilers almost lost an exhibition game to Montevallo when the opponent got hot from behind the three-point line.  If the Bison play disciplined basketball, they could win the turnover battle too against this young and sometimes sloppy Boilermaker team.  A veteran squad with good shooting, a strong inside presence, and that doesn't turn the ball over much?  Sounds ripe for an early upset.

One thing you absolutely need to know before the game -  We're going to sound like a broken record here after a while, but for the third straight game, you can't watch this one live on TV!

The game is on Big Ten Digital Network again, meaning you'll need to pay to watch it.  As we mentioned earlier in the week, it's a monthly subscription, and  the Hofstra game is on BTDN as well on Sunday.  I agree that it completely sucks to have to pay $9.95 to watch it on the computer when you're already paying to get the Big Ten Network from your cable provider, but them's the breaks.  After last season's issues between Purdue and BTN, it's really no surprise they're screwing fans over again.

If you can't watch it online on Friday night, the game will be rebroadcast on BTN at 8pm on Saturday.

Our Picks - We like to think we're better than Vegas.  So throughout the season, we'll be "betting" a whole dollar amount versus the spread between $1 and $32, but we can't repeat the same value twice.  At the end of the year, we'll see if we would have made enough money to make a move to Vegas worth it.  The spread for this game is Purdue by 4.

Erik's Bet: $26
Erik's Pick: Bucknell 72 - Purdue 68

Kirk's Bet: $30
Kirk's Pick: Purdue 70 - Bucknell 65

Values already bet
Erik 12, 14
Kirk 31, 32

Boiler up, it's basketball season! 

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Basketball Recap: Purdue 109 - Newberry 68

Another exhibition game, and another evening of sitting by the radio (or laptop) or watching online on the Big Ten Digital Network.  What, you haven't purchased the monthly plan yet?  Me neither.  Like the previous exhibition game against Montevallo, I was stuck listening to portions of the game, so most of our insightful analysis will be based on the box score.  Unfortunately I didn't find a replay of the game this week on BTN, but it looks like this game didn't feature quite as challenging of an opponent as Montevallo.

Box Score Analysis -

While the Boilers gave up a few more points in this one, clearly the shorter Wolves couldn't stop the Purdue offensive explosion.  Erik predicted in our game preview that there may be some turnover issues on both sides of the ball, and he was right.  Newberry had 22 turnovers but also forced 19 from the Boilers (10 from the freshmen, as Erik also foresaw in his crystal basketball).  Ronnie Johnson had five, and that's something that could be a real killer this season as the freshman and his fellow newcomers get adjusted to playing with each other and the speed of the college game.

The good news, despite the turnovers, was that Purdue had 16 more second-chance points, and part of that was due to their terrific shooting.  Purdue shot 55% from the field and 46% from three point range.  That's something I really hope can be a trend, although I'm not expecting it when the defense is taller and more skilled.  

It was nice to see DJ Byrd get his offensive game on track, as he scored 11 points, but the other guards really made some noise.  Terone Johnson scored 18 points on 80% shooting, Ronnie racked up 16 points on 6-9 shooting, and Rapheal Davis tallied 16 points as well.  And while Anthony Johnson didn't score as much, he dished out eight assists, which is pretty amazing for a guy who isn't a true point guard.  But wait, that's not all!  Little AJ also led the team in rebounding with seven boards, and when a guy who has "little" in his nickname can do that, it means he's playing some great basketball.

How did the bigs do?  The minutes were split almost perfectly evenly between the six Boilers, and all were able to score and pull down about five or six rebounds, including at least two offensive boards per player.  The team had eight blocks, which should be expected against a team with less size, but did anyone expect four to come from Travis Carroll?  Maybe the competition between these titans will bring out the best in each.

Our Picks Update -

Since we set a completely made-up point spread of 25 for these two exhibition games, Erik wisely chose middle values to bet, and got both games correct.  I, on the other hand, am starting the season in a deep, deep hole.  I'm so deep I think I see China.

Standings through two games:
Erik +26
Kirk -63

Deeper

Deeper and deeper

The real season begins on Friday night against Bucknell in what could be a very challenging game, so get ready, and check back here soon for our game preview with all the important things you need to watch for.

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Best Case Scenario: The Big Ten Leaders Division

The thing that makes me most frustrated as a Purdue fan is that this would have been by far the easiest year to win the Leaders division and make the title game in Indianapolis.  With Ohio State, the clear top team in the division and conference, ineligible for postseason play and Penn State, easily the second best team in the division, also ineligible, all Purdue had to do was finish first among four teams.

We knew that Illinois was going to be bad this year, and they've lived up to expectations and are winless in the conference.  We knew that Indiana had the chance to win a couple games, but no one outside of southern Indiana really has much faith that they are any better than that.  So it was down to Purdue and Wisconsin, with Wisconsin being the heavy favorite and Purdue the wild card.

We all know how fantastic that wild card performed so far this season.  Winless in the conference, the team is in shambles, the coaching staff are about to get the ax,  yet people are still humorously talking about bowl eligibility, like that's something special to finish 6-6 again with the year being a total failure regardless.  This would be a horrible year for the Boilers in a vacuum, but it's worse because Wisconsin didn't run away with the Leaders division amid the Purdue/Indiana/Illinois failures.

Wisconsin is only 3-2 in conference, with wins over hapless Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois.  Wisconsin isn't bad by any means, they've won the conference games they should by decent margins, and they narrowly lost to Nebraska and Michigan State by three points each, games the Badgers could have/should have won if not for late collapses.  But still, they are terribly vulnerable, and with games left against Penn State and Ohio State, all Purdue may have needed was a .500 record in the Big Ten.

Sadly for Purdue fans, Wisconsin's lack of punch leaves the door open for Indiana to challenge for the division title.  With three games left to play, things can get a little crazy in the division, so let's take a look at what might pan out (only because after last night's election fun, I'm still in the mood for playing with numbers and odds).  I've listed the games remaining and the likely result for the featured team.

Wisconsin's final 3 games (3-2 in conference):
    at Indiana (W, favored by 7)
    Ohio State (L)
    at Penn State (L)

Indiana's final 3 games (2-3):
    Wisconsin (L, see above))
    at Penn State (L)
    at Purdue (L, only because it's all Purdue might have to play for this season, and it's at Purdue)

Purdue's final 3 games (0-5):
    at Iowa (L)
    at Illinois (W, because they are just that bad)
    Indiana (W, see above)

This slate would result in Wisconsin finishing with a 4-4 record and winning the division, with Indiana and Purdue each at 2-6.  It's also perfectly feasible that the Hoosiers win the bucket this year, finishing at 3-5 with Purdue a putrid 1-5.  Pretty sad that a team makes the title game with a .500 record.  But here's where it can get really crazy.

Let's run through that slate again with different results:


Wisconsin's final 3 games (3-2 in conference):
    at Indiana (L, this could certainly happen since the Hoosiers are playing everyone close)
    Ohio State (L)
    at Penn State (L)

Indiana's final 3 games (2-3):
    Wisconsin (W, see above)
    at Penn State (L)
    at Purdue (L)

Purdue's final 3 games (0-5):
    at Iowa (W, Boilers are only 4.5 point underdogs)
    at Illinois (W)
    Indiana (W, see above)


In this scenario, all three teams finish with a 3-5 conference record!  A team with a losing conference record would have to play in Indianapolis, and if that team was IU, they wouldn't even be bowl eligible at 5-7.  So who would get to go to the title game?  Wisconsin beat Purdue head-to-head, who beat Indiana, who beat Wisconsin.  Per the official Big Ten tiebreaker procedures let's go through the process step by step.

A world without decisive tiebreakers

Tiebreaker 1: The conference records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other

Each team will be 3-5 in the conference as previously stated, let's move on.

Tiebreaker 2: The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division

Wisconsin would be 2-3 in the division, Indiana would be 2-3, Purdue would be 2-3.  That solves nothing. Next!

Tiebreaker 3: The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6)

In this fluke of a season, these aren't three teams tied for first place, they're actually three teams tied for third place behind Ohio State and Penn State, who are ignored because they are not post-season eligible.  The rules don't clearly state if they'd compare their joint records against Ohio State first or Illinois, who finished sixth, but unsurprisingly, it doesn't matter!  Each team would have lost to Ohio State, lost to Penn State, and beaten Illinois, so there's no separation there no matter the order of comparison.

Tiebreaker 4: The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents

Wisconsin didn't play Iowa, so that comparison's out. Indiana didn't play Minnesota, so that's moot.  There is no common Big Ten opponent between the three teams, so we move on to the next tiebreaker.

Tiebreaker 5: The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the BCS poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship

This tiebreaker doesn't help because none of these teams would be getting any votes as a top 25 team in any poll, and thus the BCS poll would not factor them in at all.  They'd be unranked, unvoted, and unworthy of this potential tiebreaker.  Try again!

Tiebreaker 6: The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative

I'm going to assume that "exempted games" mean those against FCS opponents. So here are the winning percentages against FBS teams in this scenario:
    Wisconsin: 5-6 (one win against Northern Iowa of the FCS)
    Indiana: 4-7 (one win against Indiana State of the FCS)
    Purdue: 5-6 (one win against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS)
These results would drop IU from consideration, and since only two teams would remain, the tiebreaker reverts to head-to-head performance and Wisconsin would go to the title game. Case closed.

It would take six of the seven levels of tiebreakers to make the decision, which is simply amazing.  Interestingly, if IU had beaten Ball State or Navy earlier in the season, then all three teams would have been 5-6 against the FBS, so it would have gone to the final tiebreaker, which I want to share just for my own personal enjoyment.

Tie Breaker 7: The representative will be chosen by random draw

Random draw between three bad teams for a chance to be one win from a BCS bowl.  I would have loved to see that televised with all three coaches present!

And now, let's do this entire thing again and assume Illinois wins out.  I kid, I kid, that'll never happen.

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Purdue - Penn State Recap: Does Anyone Really Want To Read This?

The Purdue football team has made it easy on me.  Typically, we have a template that we fill in for our recaps.  What I didn't realize was that the team was filling out the template for us.  For a recap of this game, just go to the Minnesota recap.  Or the Wisconsin recap.  Or the Michigan recap.  Or, just fill in the following...

Purdue came out strong and scored a    field goal   on their first drive.  The Boilermaker defense then did their best impression of a sieve and gave up     34      points in a row.  Meanwhile, the starting quarterback, Robert Marve acted like he only practiced the first drive all week and was replaced in the third quarter.  The Boilers then scored against the 4th string defense to make the score a little less lopsided.  Coach Danny Hope (underlined for potential future games) acted like he's never won a Big Ten game and Offensive Coordinator Gary Nord remained defiant in his superiority over all offensive minds in college football.  Somehow, these guys have been so bad that Defensive Coordinator Tim Tibesar and his 2-down CFL defense goes yet another week without getting the majority of the blame.  Purdue has now lost    5    straight games.

Since I know nobody else wants to read any of this, I thought you might prefer to see a whole bunch of humorous/depressing screenshots that often happen when you have a real network filming a really boring game...

"I know where this game is headed - I'm gonna take a nap.  Luckily there's a lot of room to stretch out."

No caption needed.  Although, notice the lady in the upper right?  She is forming the "F" in the F-bomb that she's about to drop.  Seriously, if you have a recording of the game, check it out.

"Ahh!!!  My eyes!!!  I can't watch this anymore!  What's that weird shadow behind me?"

"Football?  Penn State?  I thought actual lions were going to be here.  Hopefully the guy next to me with the fake hair doesn't see my rifle..." 

The empty 3rd quarter stare we've become so familiar with.

I'm pretty sure part of Penn State's sanctions include "no video of naked people and the football team in the same shot."

 

"Hey!  I want to take my clothes off too!"

Frank showed up to announce the Women's Soccer ACC Championship game a day early.  He soon realized his mistake and that he was at a Purdue football game when he noticed he was the only one that was still there. People actually stick around in the second half of women's soccer games. 

This is the "Paper Bag" treatment from a 3-year-old.

"Hey, nice job Caleb - we beat them in plays!  Plus, there are more people here than there were at this point of the Wisconsin game! Progress!"

"Lord, thank you for letting us score a touchdown.  But why won't you let us kick the extra point?? We haven't had a single kick blocked this week and I haven't suffered enough!"

If any of you were featured in the above pictures, let us know and we'll give you a prize for keeping us entertained during an absolutely awful game.

Picks of the Week Update:

Huge week this week as Kirk made up $58 and pulled into the lead!

Kirk moves up to $25.50.
Erik lost and is down to $24.

This race is close, so at least it gives you something to look forward to for the last three weeks of the football season!

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Preview: Purdue vs. Newberry - November 3rd - 8:00 pm - BTDN

The Newberry Wolves come to town in what promises to be a much louder Mackey Arena than Tuesday night's exhibition game against Montevallo.  Who'd have thought that many are more excited for this game than the football game against Penn State earlier in the day?

Scar, the Newberry wolf, scares little children.

Why Purdue Will Win -  Newberry returns 6 players from a team that lost to Anderson in their conference tournament.  Anderson then lost to Montevallo in the NCAA tournament.  Purdue took care of Montevallo on Tuesday and expects to get more than 0 points from senior DJ Byrd tonight.  Plus, The Exponent says that Newberry forced 0.5 turnovers per game last season.  If true (and when is The Exponent ever wrong?), this would be the worst turnover percentage in the history of organized basketball which makes me feel pretty good about Purdue's chances.

Why Newberry Will Win -  Newberry's game notes say they actually forced 20.5 turnovers per game last year.  Plus, they also had the number 2 scoring offense in Division II, averaging 87.9 points per game (only behind West Liberty's 102.4 [!] ppg).  If the freshmen get flustered and turn the ball over a lot, Newberry could make this a game.  Look out for Dondray Walker, one of the top players in Newberry's conference, while keeping an eye out for Icelandic national team member, Aegir Steinarsson.  The only thing you need to know about Steinarsson is found in Newberry's official game notes:

In other Steinarsson-related information, his middle name is Thor, which is just awesome.

Yes, the game notes really say "which is just awesome".  I like these guys.

One thing you absolutely need to know before the game -  The game is on Big Ten Digital Network again, meaning you'll need to pay to watch it.  As I mentioned earlier in the week, it's a monthly subscription, and  you WILL want to watch Purdue's home opener on BTDN against Bucknell.  So you might as well suck it up and pay the $9.95.

For those of you fools who sent me text messages about how "it's 15 bucks now" while I was at perhaps the only Cleveland Cavaliers win of the entire season, you clicked the wrong link!  I put up 2 links last time - one to tell you a little about BTDN (which only allows you to buy the $15 subscription) and the other was the link you should click on to subscribe to the Purdue-only feed ($9.95).  So to avoid confusion, I'm only including one link: CLICK ME TO GET THE $9.95 SUBSCRIPTION!!! There, now you can't miss it.

Our Picks - We like to think we're better than Vegas.  So throughout the season, we'll be "betting" a whole dollar amount versus the spread between $1 and $32, but we can't repeat the same value twice.  At the end of the year, we'll see if we would have made enough money to make a move to Vegas worth it.  The spread for this game is once again Purdue -25 (I just made that up since it's an exhibition game, but it seemed reasonable).

Erik's Bet: $14
Erik's Pick: Purdue 87 - Newberry 61

Kirk's Bet: $32
Kirk's Pick: Purdue 70 - Newberry 50

Standings Through 1 Game
Erik +$12
Kirk -$31

Values already bet
Erik 12
Kirk 31


Boiler Up!

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Preview: Purdue vs. Penn State - November 3rd - 3:30pm - ESPNU

Saturday will be Purdue's last chance to beat a good opponent this season and earn that annual Spoilermaker upset.  And while Penn State is looking like a very good team after a rough start to the season, there's nothing to spoil for the Nittany Lions, since they won't be playing in a postseason for a few more years.

What's at stake for Purdue?  A chance to finally right the ship that has been sinking for the last four weeks, and a critical win to try and get bowl eligible.

Why Purdue wins
The fans rejoiced when it was announced Robert Marve would be the starter on Saturday.  He's been the team's most efficient quarterback and seems to get the most from the guys on the field thanks to his strong leadership and winning demeanor.  Those don't necessarily result in points, but the team has the chance to really make a statement with a win behind their injured quarterback.  With Marve, I don't know if we'll see the Boilers score on their first drive, like we've become accustomed, but I also don't think we'll see the offense fall asleep for series after series.

If the defense can get to the passer, the Boilers have a good shot to shut down the Penn State offense, who don't have that great of a running game.  That's a big "if" though since sometimes the D-line shows up, and other weeks they don't.  The talent's there, so hopefully they can rally and cause some havoc.

I'd say home field advantage is a big plus for Purdue (and no one wants to play in Happy Valley), but I'm not sure if that will matter the way the fans have (rightfully) bailed on spending money to see this team play.  Hopefully the season ticket holders will show up loud and energetic.

Why Penn State wins 
Quarterback Matt McGloin has looked better and better each week, and he's making the Lion offense a potent attack.  After the way Minnesota freshman Philip Nelson made the Boiler secondary look last week, McGloin could dominate.

The Penn State defense is one of the toughest in the conference, so they could very easily shut Purdue's offense down.  Their pass rush is adept at sacking the quarterback, and with Marve not as fleet of foot as before his injury, the Boilers could get forced into a lot of deep-passing situations.  That makes things ripe for turnovers, and the Lions should win that battle and walk away with some free points.

Player we're most concerned about since their stock photo may break our TV
Maybe I'm in a mean mood, but there are just too many Nittany Lions to laugh about this week (and that's working with a transfer-depleted roster)!

First, let's just sit back and feast our eyes on these two offensive linemen (get it?!).  I'm not even going to tell you their names, since it's not their fault, poor guys.  If they get much playing time, our pass rush may be laughing too hard to attempt to get to the quarterback.

Then we have tight end Matt Lehman.  I've seen plenty of fauxhawks, but this might be the thickest and most awkward looking.  Maybe his head is just really pointy and he's trying to cover it up?  I'd criticize him for looking like a d-bag, but the dude's already married as an undergrad, so maybe his wife made him do it.





Finally, we have linebacker TJ Rhattigan, who was VERY excited for picture day.  Fortunately for Purdue, he's not as physically imposing as his namesake.  He actually looks a little like a younger, friendlier Henry Rollins (and Rollins would likely knock every Boiler on the field unconscious in a fit of rage).

Picks of the week
I'm losing badly, so now you all know why I don't actually gamble on sports.  Just wait until you see how poorly I do this basketball season with our predictions!  This week Erik and I are betting how much we spent on our most recent (or favorite recent) Halloween costume.

Kirk's Bet

Since I have two young daughters, Halloween is spent getting THEM into costumes, so I tend to rock something I can put together on the fly for free.  One year I wrapped myself in six-foot okra plants, Swiss chard, and green onions and went as my garden.  It was ridiculous, but I was pretty proud.  My favorite recent costume was back when my wife was pregnant.  We rocked the Juno couples costume, and I made an excellent Paulie Bleeker, complete with yellow sweatbands and the official Dancing Elk Condors gym shirt.  I had to purchase the t-shirt online and the yellow shorts and sweatbands at some local stores, so unfortunately the entire ensemble set me back about $45, but I still wear all the items pretty regularly (individually of course, I can't be Bleeker every day).  Hopefully this will help me catch back up to Erik if I bet wisely this week (I'm behind by $57).

I told you all that I was going to bet against Purdue covering the rest of the season, so I definitely think Penn State can win by more than 3 points.  Penn State 35 - Purdue 17

Erik's Bet

Erik's disturbing me a bit.  This year he dressed as Nicolas Cage for Halloween.  He did it using the "stylish" Cage-esque apparel he already owns and slicked back his hair with some cheap soap.  Since "free" doesn't count this week, if he had done the costume more accurately, he would have purchase some nasty jeans, white undershirt, and black leather jacket from a thrift store for about $13 (a very Halloween appropriate number) to look like this stud.  I'm sure his wife was thrilled.

Since he's on the Robert Marve bandwagon and knows the Boilers upset a team that should easily beat them once per season, Erik's got Purdue winning in a shocker!     Purdue 27 - Penn State 24

Three Final Things
1. Can you believe this is Robert Marve's first conference start?  That makes me sad, not only for Marve, who deserved better if his ligaments would have held out, but also for how messed up these last few years of quarterbacking have been.

2. If you're going to the game, remember it's Military Appreciation Day.  There will be a cool fly over, American flags will replace the conference team pennants around the rim of the stadium, and there will be some National Guard Humvees by the stadium for fans to check out.  You can also purchase an "I Am an American: We Support our Troops" camo t-shirt or hat at the stadium.

3. Boiler Up!

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Big Ten Football Power Rankings - Week 9

Doing these power rankings sure gets old when:
a) Purdue sucks
b) the conference only has one overwhelmingly good team
c) the creamy nougat middle of the chocolate bar (I'm on Halloween candy-eating overdrive) keeps beating each other up

This results in lots of slight jockeying in position, but truth be told one division is already decided, and one division is anyone's to win.  The Leaders will feature Wisconsin in the title game but only because Ohio State is not eligible, and then only because Penn State is also not eligible.  With four games to play, the Legends division could feasibly see any one of four teams win the division.

On to the rankings, where I just hope Purdue can win the Bucket game this season:

1.   Ohio State (9-0, 5-0 conference) [Last week's rank: 1] 

Still undefeated.  Still can't play after Thanksgiving weekend.  The Buckeyes took down Penn State at home, but they still have to play at Wisconsin and against Michigan.  Both are games they should win.

2.   Nebraska (6-2, 3-1) [Last week's rank: 5]

Nebraska beat Michigan by 14 points, holding them to three measly field goals.  Yes, that's partly due to Denard Robinson getting hurt and not playing in the second half, and his backup threw three interceptions.  But guess who's in first place in the Legends division now?

3.   Penn State (5-3, 3-1) [Last week's rank: 3] 

Penn State lost Ohio State, but so has everybody else.  Their defense did a great job stopping Braxton Miller in the first half (especially through the air), but he was still able to torch them on the ground. They almost equaled the Buckeyes in total yardage, but Penn State failed to get the running game going or convert some critical third downs.  Don't think this is a big setback.  The Nittany Lions are still much better than anticipated, and unless they overlook the game, should easily beat Purdue this weekend.

4.   Michigan (5-3, 3-1) [Last week's rank: 2]

Losing to Nebraska really hurts Michigan's chances of making it to Indianapolis, but losing Denard Robinson hurts more.  He's expected to play, but without him, Michigan would be much lower in these power rankings and no threat to win their division.

5.   Northwestern (7-2, 3-2) [Last week's rank: 6]

The Wildcats returned to winning form with a victory over the Hawkeyes in Evanston, leading 28-3 at one point in the second half before letting Iowa sneak closer.  Colter and Mark are a beast on the ground and have the week off to rest.

6.   Michigan State (5-4, 2-3) [Last week's rank: 8]

Michigan State went to Wisconsin and won in overtime, after having to come from behind in regulation with less than two minutes to go.  Chalk this one up to the defense continuing to play well and Wisconsin blowing it.  In their five conference games, the victors have been decided by 13 total points, with two of those games going to overtime.  So when you play Michigan State, expect a very close game.  Should be a fun one as they host Nebraska this weekend on ABC.

7.   Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2) [Last week's rank: 4]

Oh what could have been if Purdue didn't suck this year.  The Badgers blew it at home against Michigan State and make the Leaders division look even more pitiful as a 4-4 conference record may be enough to play in Indianapolis.  Ridiculous.  Wisconsin only has Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State left on the schedule, and it wouldn't surprise me if they only beat IU in that stretch.

8.   Minnesota (5-3, 1-3) [Last week's rank: 9]   

Good for you, you crushed a hapless Purdue team.  Minnesota doesn't move up much in the rankings though, because they still haven't beaten anyone good.  Their freshman quarterback looked great, but we'll see how he does against real opponents, and he'll see one this weekend when Michigan comes to town.  Robinson is expected to play, but if he isn't 100% maybe the Gophers can steal a win.

9.   Iowa (4-4, 2-2) [Last week's rank: 7] 

Iowa lost to Northwestern this last weekend, making it two poor showings in a row.  They may be in for a battle this weekend at Indiana.

10.  Indiana (3-5, 1-3) [Last week's rank: 11]   

All you get for beating Illinois, since all the cool kids are doing it these days, is to move above the pathetic Boilermakers.  I laugh hysterically every time I read a local Indianapolis story about how Indiana still has a shot to win out and make the conference title game.  I think the Hoosiers should just focus on winning another game, since I doubt they can win more than one the rest of the season, playing Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue (in West Lafayette).

11.  Purdue (3-5, 0-4) [Last week's rank: 10] 

You've already read about how horribly Purdue played against Minnesota.  Let's just leave it at that.  Pitiful.

12.  Illinois (2-6, 0-4) [Last week's rank: 12]

You lost to IU at home.  You are worthless.  Good luck with Ohio State this weekend.

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