Thursday, November 8, 2012

Basketball Recap: Purdue 109 - Newberry 68


Another exhibition game, and another evening of sitting by the radio (or laptop) or watching online on the Big Ten Digital Network.  What, you haven't purchased the monthly plan yet?  Me neither.  Like the previous exhibition game against Montevallo, I was stuck listening to portions of the game, so most of our insightful analysis will be based on the box score.  Unfortunately I didn't find a replay of the game this week on BTN, but it looks like this game didn't feature quite as challenging of an opponent as Montevallo.

Box Score Analysis -

While the Boilers gave up a few more points in this one, clearly the shorter Wolves couldn't stop the Purdue offensive explosion.  Erik predicted in our game preview that there may be some turnover issues on both sides of the ball, and he was right.  Newberry had 22 turnovers but also forced 19 from the Boilers (10 from the freshmen, as Erik also foresaw in his crystal basketball).  Ronnie Johnson had five, and that's something that could be a real killer this season as the freshman and his fellow newcomers get adjusted to playing with each other and the speed of the college game.

The good news, despite the turnovers, was that Purdue had 16 more second-chance points, and part of that was due to their terrific shooting.  Purdue shot 55% from the field and 46% from three point range.  That's something I really hope can be a trend, although I'm not expecting it when the defense is taller and more skilled.  

It was nice to see DJ Byrd get his offensive game on track, as he scored 11 points, but the other guards really made some noise.  Terone Johnson scored 18 points on 80% shooting, Ronnie racked up 16 points on 6-9 shooting, and Rapheal Davis tallied 16 points as well.  And while Anthony Johnson didn't score as much, he dished out eight assists, which is pretty amazing for a guy who isn't a true point guard.  But wait, that's not all!  Little AJ also led the team in rebounding with seven boards, and when a guy who has "little" in his nickname can do that, it means he's playing some great basketball.

How did the bigs do?  The minutes were split almost perfectly evenly between the six Boilers, and all were able to score and pull down about five or six rebounds, including at least two offensive boards per player.  The team had eight blocks, which should be expected against a team with less size, but did anyone expect four to come from Travis Carroll?  Maybe the competition between these titans will bring out the best in each.

Our Picks Update -

Since we set a completely made-up point spread of 25 for these two exhibition games, Erik wisely chose middle values to bet, and got both games correct.  I, on the other hand, am starting the season in a deep, deep hole.  I'm so deep I think I see China.

Standings through two games:
Erik +26
Kirk -63

Deeper
Deeper and deeper
The real season begins on Friday night against Bucknell in what could be a very challenging game, so get ready, and check back here soon for our game preview with all the important things you need to watch for.

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Preview: Purdue vs. Newberry - November 3rd - 8:00 pm - BTDN

The Newberry Wolves come to town in what promises to be a much louder Mackey Arena than Tuesday night's exhibition game against Montevallo.  Who'd have thought that many are more excited for this game than the football game against Penn State earlier in the day?

Scar, the Newberry wolf, scares little children.
Why Purdue Will Win -  Newberry returns 6 players from a team that lost to Anderson in their conference tournament.  Anderson then lost to Montevallo in the NCAA tournament.  Purdue took care of Montevallo on Tuesday and expects to get more than 0 points from senior DJ Byrd tonight.  Plus, The Exponent says that Newberry forced 0.5 turnovers per game last season.  If true (and when is The Exponent ever wrong?), this would be the worst turnover percentage in the history of organized basketball which makes me feel pretty good about Purdue's chances.

Why Newberry Will Win -  Newberry's game notes say they actually forced 20.5 turnovers per game last year.  Plus, they also had the number 2 scoring offense in Division II, averaging 87.9 points per game (only behind West Liberty's 102.4 [!] ppg).  If the freshmen get flustered and turn the ball over a lot, Newberry could make this a game.  Look out for Dondray Walker, one of the top players in Newberry's conference, while keeping an eye out for Icelandic national team member, Aegir Steinarsson.  The only thing you need to know about Steinarsson is found in Newberry's official game notes:
In other Steinarsson-related information, his middle name is Thor, which is just awesome.
Yes, the game notes really say "which is just awesome".  I like these guys.

One thing you absolutely need to know before the game -  The game is on Big Ten Digital Network again, meaning you'll need to pay to watch it.  As I mentioned earlier in the week, it's a monthly subscription, and  you WILL want to watch Purdue's home opener on BTDN against Bucknell.  So you might as well suck it up and pay the $9.95.

For those of you fools who sent me text messages about how "it's 15 bucks now" while I was at perhaps the only Cleveland Cavaliers win of the entire season, you clicked the wrong link!  I put up 2 links last time - one to tell you a little about BTDN (which only allows you to buy the $15 subscription) and the other was the link you should click on to subscribe to the Purdue-only feed ($9.95).  So to avoid confusion, I'm only including one link: CLICK ME TO GET THE $9.95 SUBSCRIPTION!!! There, now you can't miss it.

Our Picks - We like to think we're better than Vegas.  So throughout the season, we'll be "betting" a whole dollar amount versus the spread between $1 and $32, but we can't repeat the same value twice.  At the end of the year, we'll see if we would have made enough money to make a move to Vegas worth it.  The spread for this game is once again Purdue -25 (I just made that up since it's an exhibition game, but it seemed reasonable).

Erik's Bet: $14
Erik's Pick: Purdue 87 - Newberry 61

Kirk's Bet: $32
Kirk's Pick: Purdue 70 - Newberry 50

Standings Through 1 Game
Erik +$12
Kirk -$31

Values already bet
Erik 12
Kirk 31


Boiler Up!

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Recap: Purdue 70 - Montevallo 61

We're still in exhibition mode over here at GoBoilers.net as Purdue pulled out the meaningless 70-61 victory over Montevallo, a decent Division II squad.  As we mentioned in our preview, Montevallo did finish second in Division II, so it was nice to see the Boilers get experience against a team that's probably better than 80 to 100 Division I teams.

If you missed the game or were just too cheap to pay for it, you're in luck!  BTN will be rebroadcasting the game on Thursday at 3:00 pm.  Set your DVR's and watch it after work in place of an awful Chiefs-Chargers NFL Network Thursday Night Game.

Boiled Sports had a nice (but strangely formatted...) recap of the game, and it was reassuring to hear that Ronnie Johnson, A.J. Hammons, and Donnie Hale all played well and look like they should contribute immediately.  

Box Score Analysis -

In looking at the box score, two things stood out:

1) Terone Johnson was 7-9 from the free throw line.  For someone who drives as much as he does, a nearly 80% free throw percentage would be huge (especially compared to last year!).

2) Purdue, with a 10 point lead, did not score in the last 2:39.  Yes, it's an exhibition game.  And yes, I know the score is meaningless.  But how many times did that happen to the Boilers last year?  Xavier and Kansas instantly come to mind, although I know it happened several other games as well (I'm just too lazy to look it up).  This team is going to need to win every game it can to make the tourney, it can't afford to go into the "after the last tv timeout shell" that last year's team seemed to trademark.

Also, here are some of Kirk's thoughts from listening to the game on the radio and talking to his dad who was at the game:

  • Everyone was really excited about how Ronnie looked.  The team may not miss a beat from Lewis Jackson's graduation, and if that's what Ronnie can do as a freshman, think about the potential as he develops.
  • The Johnson brothers looked very, very good playing together on the court
  • Painter was substituting frequently, with many strange lineup combinations that we likely won't see in the regular season.  This is one of the main reasons the win wasn't by a larger margin.  It makes sense to use these meaningless games to better understand how your players may gel together, but don't fret about only winning by nine points.
  • If we really wanted to win big (pun intended), we would have fed the ball inside and taken advantage of our huge height advantage, which big AJ did a few times with a nice hook shot, a block, and put-backs.
  • Terone's free throw motion is vastly improved, which leads to the results Erik mentioned above.
  • Byrd was hitting everything in warm-ups but just had an off night, with some bad passes and poor shooting.  No cause for concern yet.
  • Little AJ looked decent running the point and made some pretty threes.
  • Hale made some nice shots and should be good, but he needs to work on his defense (as does the entire team).
  • Jay Simpson was either sick or still horribly out of shape after his injury.  Everyone noticed him lagging.
  • Carroll really didn't do anything, and Lawson looked the same as last season.  Don't expect much playing time for Travis unless it's out of necessity.

The next game is Saturday night, so we should get a better picture of what this team's going to look like later this week.  I also expect a much bigger crowd, as the game is right after the 3:30 football game against Penn State.

Stay tuned to GoBoilers.net for coverage of all the weekend's Purdue action!

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Preview: Purdue vs. Montevallo - October 30th - 7:00 pm - BTDN

Basketball season is upon us and it's about time!  With many fans having given up on football season, it's time to turn our attention to Mackey Arena for tonight's first Men's Basketball game of the year.

We're still unsure of our basketball preview and recap structure on GoBoilers.net, but here's a brief preview of tonight's game.
Yes, I'm pretty sure that's a magic lamp.
Why Purdue Will Win -  It's an exhibition game, so clearly Purdue's expected to win big.  They haven't lost one of these since 2002, and that was against the Harlem Globetrotters.  I actually remember that game, and while the team wore the signature Globetrotter uniforms, they never once threw any buckets of confetti at Jon Barry, so clearly the nobody was taking the game seriously.  Anyway, we get to see our first live action of Raphael Davis, A.J. Hammons, Ronnie Johnson, and Jay Simpson tonight, which should be worth the price of admission.  Plus, Donnie Hale is finally going to play a full season this year (knock on wood), so it'll be exciting to watch how this old freshman has progressed as well.

Why Montevallo Will Win -  Montevallo is actually pretty good.  They finished SECOND in the Division II championship last year and are ranked 16th in the country this year.  The return 3 starters, so they should have some big game experience.  Remember, Syracuse lost to Division II Le Moyne in 2009, but still ended up as a Number 1 seed at the end of the year.  I don't expect Purdue to lose OR end up as a number 1 seed, but these things do happen.

One thing you absolutely need to know before the game -  The game is on Big Ten Digital Network, which means you have to pay to watch it.  Normally, I would advise against that sort of thing and suggest reading a recap afterwards.  However, along with this Saturday's exhibition game, Purdue's first two REGULAR SEASON games will also be on the Big Ten Digital Network.  The cost for a monthly subscription to watch only Purdue games is $9.99, and all 4 games are within a month.  Purdue doesn't have any more games on the network through the season, so you can pay your $9.99 and then cancel after Purdue's game against Hofstra.  Note that you WILL want to watch Purdue's home opener against Bucknell, as that is already being touted as a matchup between two NCAA bubble teams.  So, why not sign up now and get the exhibition games at no extra cost!

Alright, I sound like a salesman for BTDN and I apologize.  Paying for these games totally blows.  But it is what it is.  And if you're going to watch the Bucknell game (which is currently ONLY being shown on this Big Ten Digital Network), you might as well just buy it now  - the production will be horrible and you may not ever see the score or the clock, but your $9.99 will surely go towards some college kid announcer's Mad Mushroom cheese sticks budget. 

To sign up, go here (the Purdue-only page) and click "subscribe now" towards the bottom right hand side of the page.  Make sure to sign up for the "Boilermaker All-Access Monthly Subscription" for $9.99 and you'll have access to all 4 men's basketball games along with some women's basketball and volleyball games.  You'll also get some wrestling and Danny Hope press conferences - you can't beat it!  Then MAKE SURE to cancel it before November 30th unless you want to watch some minor women's basketball games and wrestling matches.  We'll post a reminder to cancel here after the Hofstra game.

Our Picks - We like to think we're better than Vegas.  So throughout the season, we'll be "betting" a whole dollar amount versus the spread between $1 and $32, but we can't repeat the same value twice.  At the end of the year, we'll see if we would have made enough money to make a move to Vegas worth it.  The spread for this game is Purdue -25 (I just made that up since it's an exhibition game, but it seemed reasonable).

Erik's Bet: $12
Erik's Pick: Purdue 68 - Montevallo 54

Kirk's Bet: $31
Kirk's Pick: Purdue 85 - Montevallo 45

Boiler Up!